The San Francisco 49ers are in a position where they could have a shot at taking Blaine Gabbert in the 2011 NFL Draft. He has been called the most NFL-ready QB and a can't-miss prospect.
Many, if not most, 49er fans are also done with Alex Smith. It seems clear that the franchise needs to draft their new QB of the future and move beyond the failed Alex Smith experiment...doesn't it?
Not so fast, 49er fans. As an outsider that has still followed your team closely since the Seahawks came back to the NFC West, I can say Alex Smith hasn't really been given a chance to succeed.
He has been mired in mediocrity (at best) since being drafted. The revolving door at offensive coordinator hasn't helped, but his real issue has been a lack of talent around him.
Niner fans have been told for a few years that they have the most talent in the NFC West. Players have painted the team bus with NFC West champions during training camp, and team presidents have guaranteed making the playoffs after an 0-5 start to the season.
The problem is it has been false promises. The offensive line isn't good enough to be called bad, creating challenges for Smith in finding a pocket. Your stud running back can't survive a 16-game schedule, and your best receiver is a tight end. There are pieces there, but the holes nullify them.
Speaking of holes, Smith's name will inevitably be brought up. Coaches and fans have been predicting a breakout season for him, but it hasn't happened. Then again, when his line doesn't provide the time he needs, and his top receiver can't get open, the expectations haven't been fair.
Smith has sacrificed his body to try to extend plays when other QBs would have run out of bounds or thrown the ball away a few steps earlier to avoid a hit. His reward from the fans has been a deluge of boos for one incomplete pass to start a game when he had no time to throw and no open receivers. These fans didn't deserve to watch him and his teammates humiliate the Seahawks last December.
The 49ers will be looking at free-agent options, and there has been a report that they even offered a one-year contract to Smith to come in and compete for the starting job in 2011. They will also have options in the first two rounds of the upcoming NFL draft. One of those players is a spread offense QB that is being hyped over a more traditional thrower that will likely be drafted later in Round 1. Sound familiar?
Alex Smith threw 32 TDs and had just four INTs his final year at Utah. He averaged over 10 YPC, and completed 67.5 percent of his passes. Despite needing to adjust to a pro-style offense, his collegiate production gave credence to being selected early in the first round.
This year's version, Gabbert, doesn't have the numbers to back up his projected draft status. He does throw a nice spiral, but how can a spread offense QB throw just 16 TDs in a season and be considered elite? Throw in just getting 6.7 yards per completion, and numbers in his junior year that dropped somewhat significantly from his sophomore year, and Gabbert has bigger bust potential than Smith.
Despite overhyped projections from draft analysts, Gabbert will likely be available to the 49ers in this draft...and Harbaugh may want to pass on him. This could anger the 49er faithful. However, it would be the right choice. There are bigger needs to fill in this draft and the 49ers would be better served giving Alex Smith one more season and taking Prince Amukamara with the seventh pick.
The problem is Trent Baalke and Jed York may not be able to resist the temptation to grab a high-profile QB to show they are committed to winning.
Danica Patrick Josie Maran Leighton Meester Dominique Swain Jamie Chung
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